Exceptional rains in Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands since mid-April have caused flash floods in many parts of the country and the flooding of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in some areas. Light flooding is not unusual at the onset of the Gu season. Normally, the heaviest flooding occurs during the Deyr season (October – November), which corresponds to the main rainy season in the southeastern highlands of Ethiopia, which feed Somalia’s rivers. However, in this rainy season, the Horn of Africa has experienced exceptional rains that have arrived from the Atlantic Ocean via the Congo Basin, causing unusual rains in Uganda, western Kenya, and the Ethiopian highlands. These heavy rains are an abnormal meteorological event that could not have been forecasted. Rainfall was so heavy during the first 10 days of May; some areas received almost 100 percent of their average annual rainfall (e.g. Belet Weyne in Hiran).

Currently, the Juba River is full and the Shabelle River has been fluctuating at levels well above normal. Typically, the Shabelle is more prone to flooding than the Juba, with the exception of the southern portion of the Juba River, from Jilib to Gobweyne. Before civil unrest erupted, the Somalia government and local authorities were able to limit flood damage through the maintenance of river embankments, canals, regulatory infrastructure, as well as through emergency mechanisms such as sand bagging and the preparedness of tractors and bulldozers. Since then, systematic control and rehabilitation mechanisms have all but collapsed. This, combined with fairly serious damage to the structure of the Shabelle River bed and supporting infrastructure, caused by the El Niño floods, has left the river more vulnerable than ever to flooding.

Flash floods commonly occur throughout Somalia during periods of heavy downpours. These floods typically result in the loss of livestock and damage to infrastructure, particularly to property and roads. During heavy rains, many key transport routes become impassable. This disrupts trade and often results in substantial increases in the prices of basic commodities, such as food and seeds. In addition, flash floods commonly damage or completely destroy underground grain reserves. While the heavy rains may ultimately benefit pastoralists, through improved water and pasture conditions, other groups, notably poor agropastoralists in rainfed areas, have much to lose.

Flash floods are of particular concern when seeds and plants are washed away. As the Gu rains normally subside in June, this year’s rainfall season is half over. Therefore, it is probably too late in the season for farmers to replant fields that have washed away with hopes of producing a cereal crop. However, many farmers will likely replant with hopes of producing some fodder for their livestock – if seeds are available and if farmers can afford them. If poor agro-pastoralists in rainfed areas lose this year’s Gu cereal crop, their level of vulnerability and need for international assistance could increase substantively, at least through the end of 2000. Previously identified vulnerable groups, notably poor agro-pastoralists in rainfed areas, have already depleted most of their livelihood assets and many have exhausted available coping mechanisms due to the protracted drought. For these groups – flooding could ultimately lead to destitution.

Since the 13^th of May, field reports indicate that rains have subsided in most of Somalia and in Ethiopia. This will have an immediate impact on the incidence of flash floods. In Belet Weyne, the Shabelle River level is reported as high, but stable. This is a positive development in terms of further threats of flooding to riverine areas. However, river water passing through the northern part of both the Juba (Luuq) and Shabelle Rivers (Belet Weyne) takes approximately two weeks to reach the coast, during which time further flooding could occur in downstream regions.

While flooding in the weeks ahead must be closely monitored, the immediate need for international assistance, such as health and shelter, at present appears minimal and limited to those areas where people have become displaced as flood waters washed away their homes, as in Mombasa village in Lower Shabelle. In areas hit by flash floods, damaged infrastructure, particularly roads will need to be rehabilitated. In the weeks ahead, FSAU field monitors will be assessing the cropped area lost to flooding and the number of affected farmers who could be assisted with replanting, if seeds are immediately available.