Although it is daring to speculate while the war is still going on, let us assume that
Ethiopia wins this war and Eritrea losses (a very likely outcome). What then? How would
such an outcome affect the future locally, regionally as well as nationally. I think a win
by Ethiopia presents dramatic change of events locally, regionally as well as
internationally. However, these changes in the equation can be utilized
positively/constructively or negatively/destructively. Clearly the choices will be made by
the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea. But here are some of my speculations: Locally, I
think the Zenawi government will greatly benefit from a win against Eritrea. This will
most likely dampen the hopes of the Ethiopian opposition. For now the Amharas, the Oromos
and the Ogadenians will have to take a deep breath and rethink their strategy. No doubt
the elections would be won by the current Tigre government (remember, after all, the war
started the same day that voting booths were opening- in the new world of Africa, that is
as close as things can get to western way of things: for better or for worse). The
euphoria created by a win against Eritrea will carry the current government at least until
the next election time… if ever. Obviously, the ruling party in Ethiopia has the
opportunity to use its popularity to make some real and good reforms internally if they
hope Ethiopia to maintain itself together for the next Millennium. They can focus on
rebuilding OROMIA and OGADEN to improve the moral of the people there. They should rethink
famine prevention agenda. However, consistent with the history of Africa, the current
military victory could also give the leaders of Ethiopia a sense of grandiosity that would
lead to more wars and more military expression. Regionally, a victory by Ethiopia could
again lead to either more peace/stability or to more wars. If Eritrea cuts its losses and
calls for negotiated long-term settlement of the border issue with Ethiopia, quits
supporting destabilizing factors in Somalia and other pats of the region, and Ethiopia
takes this gesture as a genuine effort, then we could see what people have talked about
few years back- the renaissance of the horn of African. If I were Eritrea and I choose
this option, I will first end the war. Call Zenawi to withdraw his troops. Settle the
border issue. And give a quick call to Djibouti and support the peace effort there and
become a good member of the EGAD. Another scenario would be for Ethiopia to pursue a
hegemonic role in the region, Eritrea will be reduced to non-ending war zone, and the rest
of the region would be affected negatively. With respect to Somalia, a victory by Ethiopia
could do positive things or negative things. And this depends on the vision of the
Ethiopian leaders. If they envision Somalia a natural enemy that is now down, they have
the opportunity to sustain it. They could withdraw their lukewarm support for the Djibouti
process. They could reestablish ties with South Mogadishu and provide military and moral
support for Somaliland secessionist policy. That will get Ethiopia a divided, weak but
unstable Somalia. An outcome that would certainly make progress in the region difficult to
say the least. On the other hand, if Ethiopia envisions a leadership role in the region,
they need to work toward stabilizing Somalia. A victory against Eritrea provides an
opportunity. They should insist that Eritrea as part of the war-ending negotiations
suspend ties with South Mogadishu and support the peace process. Ethiopia should support
more openly and genuinely the Djibouti peace process as well. Internationally, what will
be the implications of an out right victory by Ethiopia? Depends on what part of the world
you talking about. In sub-Saharan Africa, this will mean Ethiopia will resuscitate its
long held reputation of black bravery and the seat of the OAU. In the Middle east,
obviously Gadaffi and Mubarak will be very unhappy initially. They will be forced to
rethink their strategy for the region. Either they will go deeper into the crisis by
re-igniting support for destabilizing forces like the South Mogadishu factions, or they
could just like Eritrea cut their loss and work on peace by supporting Ethiopia’s
role in the region and peace in Somalia through the Djibouti process. What about Eritrea
internally? I think it will depend on how Eritrea ends the war. If they recognize defeat
and want get what they can get peacefully, they should soon sit down with the enemy and
come up with a plan. On the other hand, they could resist until the cows come home, in
which case, we will see the rebirth of the Eritrea independence struggle along with rising
internal tenses between the Muslims and the Christian minority (that is dominating the
power). In others words, we could be looking at another Somalia… which is tragic for
the region. Aidid