- Title: [SW Analysis](Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update) Yemen - At the Tip of
the Arabian Peninsula, A Contest For Influence
- From:[]
- Date :[ 24 May 2000]
(Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update)
At the Tip of the Arabian Peninsula, A Contest
For Influence
Summary
Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev is conducting an important
though largely unnoticed visit to Yemen, on the Arabian Peninsula,
to discuss military cooperation between the two countries. The
discussions certainly will afford Moscow the opportunity to sell
weapons, but in a larger sense increasing Russian influence could
compete with U.S. interests at the nexus of three oceans. Courted
both by Russia and the United States, Yemen stands to gain both
military assets and an important ally.
Analysis
Led by Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, a Russian delegation arrived
in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, on May 22. According to ITAR-Tass,
Sergeyev met President Ali Abdullah Saleh and delivered a letter
from Russian President Vladimir Putin that suggested strengthening
bilateral ties. Saleh and Sergeyev reportedly discussed military
cooperation as well.
Though not a dominant regional player, Yemen is strategically
located on the southern flank of the Arabian Peninsula, with which
it has had a long-running dispute. Ports in Yemen are also well-
suited to provide both maritime and, in case of a crisis, naval
access to the shipping lanes of the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean
and the Red Sea. As a result, this small country sits astride the
waterways that carry much of the world's oil.
Yemen and Russia have a strong history of Cold War military
collaboration. During Yemen's civil war in the 1960s the former
Soviet Union equipped the army of the former North Yemen; Moscow
later became a key economic and military ally to the former Marxist
republic of South Yemen. During Sergeyev's visit this week, Yemen
celebrated the 10th anniversary of unification, parading its
Russian equipment - MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters, Scud missiles and
T-72 tanks - on the streets of Sanaa.
The new Russian government has been busy this spring re-awakening
ties with Yemen. In March, a Yemeni military delegation visited Moscow to
discuss arms purchases that reportedly included Su-27s, modernized versions
of the T-72, multiple rocket launchers and air defense systems.
Yemen wants to upgrade its military, and Russia - strapped for cash
- appears willing to oblige.
While sheer business is certainly driving the relationship, there
are far-reaching implications to greater cooperation. Yemen needs
military equipment to sustain a longstanding border dispute with
Saudi Arabia. Yemen's ports can provide Russian maritime traffic
with facilities and naval vessels with ports in the proximity of
three waterways: the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and the Indian
Ocean. The United States has also courted the government in Sanaa
and clearly would not want it under influence of a competing power.
__________________________________________________________________
Would you like to see full text, graphics and accompanying
articles?
http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/052400.ASP
___________________________________________________________________
On the Arabian Peninsula itself, the border dispute between Yemen
and Saudi Arabia has recently heated up. In January, the Saudis
captured the strategic Jahfan Mountain, on the frontier. In April,
Saudi Arabia cracked down on the Ismaeli Shiites - many of whom are
based in Yemen - in the Saudi border town of Najran, indicating an
upsurge in the dispute.
Russia stands to gain far more than access to a single arms market.
The new U.N. arms embargo against Ethiopia and Eritrea has closed
off two significant markets for Russian arms exports. More hardware
flowing into Yemen could easily turn into arms smuggled into the
Horn of Africa, recently returned to all-out war.
At a strategic level, Russia appears to be re-activating ties to
Persian Gulf nations Iraq and Yemen because it foresees a cooling
of relations with Iran. Moscow and Tehran are are increasingly in
competition within the Caspian region. Even as Moscow asserts its
influence in that region, Iran continues to advocate that the
Caspian and Caucasus regions remain "multi-polar."
__________________________________________________________________
For more on Yemen, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/countries/Yemen/default.htm
___________________________________________________________________
For the United States and Saudi Arabia, the emerging relationship
in Sanaa could become a particularly thorny challenge. The United
States is the predominant power in the Persian Gulf and has
attempted to court both Yemen and Oman; together they control the
entire southern flank of the Arabian Peninsula. Ironically, U.S.
Special Operations Forces may be clearing the way for others to use
Yemen's significant deep water ports; the U.S. Central Command has
sponsored a significant de-mining initiative in these harbors.
Moscow is moving to counter Washington's longstanding claim to
predominance in this region. The Russian government has publicly
stated that it will resume military cooperation with Iraq as soon
as the U.N. sanctions are lifted and has vowed to make every effort
to accelerate that process. Interfax News Agency reported on April
24 that the Russian Defense Ministry is considering deploying
warships to the Persian Gulf in response to increased activity by
U.S. naval forces.
Neglected since the end of the Cold War, the government in Yemen
now finds itself in the catbird seat. The United States, in
response, may now accelerate its efforts to improve ties - though
that could be a costly proposition that damages diplomatic
relations with the Saudi government. Courted on both sides, Yemen
stands to gain badly needed military equipment and a potent ally.
__________________________________________________________________
Would you like to know more about the Middle East and Africa? Visit
http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/default.htm?section=5
___________________________________________________________________
[Back to the top] [ Analysis] |
