- Title: [SW News](Daily Nation) Conflict in the Horn: Why Moi is worried
- From:[]
- Date :[]Mon Feb 14 2000
News-Analysis
Tuesday, February 15, 2000
Conflict in the Horn: Why Moi is worried
By ERIC ORINA
President Moi's blitz into Ethiopia and Eritrea late last week was similar to one he made
just over a year ago in pursuit of a peaceful settlement to the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict.
The one-day trip had three objectives: To discuss business, to discuss Kenya's internal
security, and to pursue an agenda which the President has been trying to promote in recent
days, but which has been largely ignored by the media- life after 2002.
The third objective appears close to the heart of the President at the moment. He wants to
play a role in Africa's problem-solving theatre, much like retired South African President
Nelson Mandela does, once he leaves State House.
He wants to continue a task he started in earlier years of his presidency, which saw him
intervene in a number of regional crises in attempts to mediate peaceful conclusions.
President Moi's efforts in this area have not been very successful. This can be blamed on
his apparent dogmatic adherence to the non-interference clause in the OAU Charter, which
in effect promotes a shaky status quo in African conflicts.
A notable failure was the Uganda peace negotiation of 1985-86 which floundered after the
then guerilla leader Yoweri Museveni shot his was to power within days of signing a peace
deal in Nairobi.
The President's rigidity also made a mockery of his initiatives in the Zaire conflict,
especially with the Zaire 1 and 2 conferences he hosted between 1996-97.
The chief belligerent, Laurent Kabila, was not invited to the talks, which were akin to
the Heads of State private club that meets every so often under the auspices of the OAU.
Later, when Kabila ascended to power, other belligerents entered the scene and the
President's studious observance of the status quo once again prevented meaningful
intervention in the conflict, which is still going on.
The other attempts are the seemingly intractable southern Sudan conflict, which persists
to date in spite of innumerable peace initiatives, and Somalia, to which he only refers to
with exasperation today.
It was, however, with renewed enthusiasm for peace brokerage that the President called a
Press conference on February 3 ostensibly to discuss the crises in African countries. The
conference, the first in two years, ironically turned into a discussion about his
retirement.
Sources at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicate that the President has embarked on a
new peace initiative for Ethiopia and Eritrea, with the backing of the OAU and the
European Union, which late last year named a special envoy to the Horn of Africa.
Indeed, in the last few weeks, the President seems to have regained his international
stature, which dimmed somewhat between 1991 and 1998 to the extent that Nairobi, a virtual
hub for all regional diplomatic activity in the 1980s was replaced by Kampala.
Because President Moi is one of the longest serving leaders in Africa, it is difficult to
ignore his input in any regional effort, whether economic or political- thus his
participation in the recent IMF meetings in Gabon and his current visit to Washington,
United States, to discuss African affairs.
According to sources, the President has been trying to impress on Presidents Meles Zenawi
of Ethiopia and Issaias Afeworki on the need to resolve their 20-month-old conflict
amicably, because both countries are "brotherly neighbours" and "to
exercise restraint to avoid an outbreak of hostilities".
Early last year, he did the same thing, but with mixed results. Although both leaders
welcomed the peace initiative then, but within a few weeks, they were both back on the war
front, with much more ferocious fighting that went on for much of the year.
So, what's new with this latest initiative?
First, the OAU has since then come up with a formula to end the conflict, even though this
has largely been jettisoned by Ethiopia.
The two countries have agreed to the OAU plan in principle, but Addis has objected to the
so-called technical arrangements, insisting that Asmara's forces withdraw to the positions
they held before the war broke out in May 1998.
This has been the sticking point: Whether Eritrea should withdraw from the disputed town
of Zalambessa and from Bure, a third front on the south-eastern edge of the border.
This is where the main battle has been, around the towns of Badme, Zalambessa and Bure
across fixed frontlines with both sides using heavy artillery fire and air-power to pound
ground troops.
Eritrea occupied the disputed land during the war's first phase, but Ethiopian troops
recaptured ground at Badme soon after President Moi's trip there in January last year.
It is believed that Moi wants both leaders to soften their stand and create room for
negotiations, thus the statement that "there should be no rigidity in discussing a
peace plan."
Secondly, the two countries are believed to have reached a point in the war in which its
"value is estimated by the number of men who return home." They want out; a
speedy conclusion rather than a long drawn-out tussle.
At the heart of the conflict is trade, which is also part of the President's objectives of
his visit.
Before the war, Ethiopians had complained about the high cost of accessing the Eritrean
port of Asmara, and that Eritrean traders were taking advantage of lower customs duties to
flood Ethiopia with cheaper goods.
In the course of the the war, the port of Mombasa has become increasingly important for
Ethiopian business people seeking alternatives to the Red Sea ports of Asmara and Assab
which are in Eritrea.
The roads and railways declaration after the Moi-Zenawi meeting was meant to address this
concern.
With such a development, business is supposed to benefit, and as has been a major plank in
Moi's presidency, the king's chariot must constantly be jewelled. Mark Too was out there
for the business angle, or what? The other objective, that of Kenya's internal security,
is closely tied to developments in the conflict. The instability in the region has
interfered with the security situation in Kenya. The flow of arms into Kenya through the
arid north has become a virtual avalanche.
Oromo fighters from Ethiopia have been infiltrating Kenya stolen cattle belonging to
northern Kenya pastoralists and disappearing back into Ethiopia.
A parley between Kenyan and Ethiopian government officials has been going on with the aim
of addressing this crucial issue, led by the Permanent Secretary in the Office of the
President in charge of internal security, Mr Zakayo Cheruiyot and the Chief of the General
Staff, General Daudi Tonje. Their presence in the recent presidential trip to the two
countries was to give them a chance to listen in on these peace talks.
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