General Situation

No rainfall was received in the northwest and Awdal areas, which is fairly normal for the jilaal season. However, expected heis rains in the coastal and sub-coastal areas were not received. Due to the lack of heis rains, the concentration of livestock was mainly found on the mountainous part of the region. Unusual large livestock migration from Ethiopia up to the mountainous area in the Lukhaya district is reported. During this period, the livestock arriving from Ethiopia and other regions of Somaliland has pressurized the availability of pasture and grazing. Stocks from the last good cereal harvest (deyr) are still available. Self-employment activities continue to rise, as the boost from the livestock sale strengthens income-generating activities. As the peak Haj period approaches, livestock sales are expected to increase the supply of hard currency.

Rainfall

The weather was typically dry. This is generally the case with the acacia bio-climate zone dominated by the cultivated plateau extending to the neighboring mountainous rangelands. Prospects of heis rains at the coast and sub-coastal belt failed. The cloud build that occurred in these areas several times in the last weeks of the month, which implied the arrival of rain, was misleading. Other parts of the regions expected no rains during this period. The Borama meteorological stations also confirmed this. The situation has deterred the usual seasonal livestock migration to this part of the northwest and Awdal regions. If weather conditions do not change for the worse, gu rains are expected in late March.

Albeit the normal water trends in the region, the large influx of livestock from Ethiopia side will exacerbate the availability of water. Accessibility and availability of water for both humans and livestock are normal.

During this period, the livestock arriving from Ethiopia and other regions of Somaliland has pressurized the availability of pasture and grazing. Due to increased livestock concentration on scanty pastureland, pasture availability might not last longer than expected. There is a high level of pasture competition among herds. The part of the northwest that is affected is the grazing lands on the plateaus extending along the Ethiopian border up to the mountainous areas. In agro-pastoral areas, farmers have started feeding their animals with crop stalks, as supplementary feeding due to the scarcity of pasture. This is a normal agro-pastoral strategy applied in the jilaal period.

Despite high grazing competition, livestock condition is normal for the jilaal season. As expected, during this time of year, livestock movements are high due to their search for pasture. However, movements have been observed to be within normal seasonal ranges. Within the region(s) herders moved their livestock to the mountainous areas and to the plateaus extending along the Ethiopian border. Normally, animals would be driven to the coastal belt. Such large livestock migration from Ethiopia up to the mountainous area in the Lukhaya district has been unusual. Due to the lack of heis rains, the concentration of livestock was mainly found on the mountainous part of the region. Due to the effects of the drought in Ethiopia, camels moved into the region in search of pasture and water. This has created additional pressure on the availability of scanty pasture and water. Livestock movements, coupled with the dry conditions, have further reduced milk yields; hence, prices are high. In the jilaal period, herders employ migratory grazing strategies to cope with the prevailing conditions.

The last deyr cereal harvest was good, comparatively similar to 1992 production levels. Most of the farmers reserved enough cereal stock that is expected to last until the next harvest. Farmers also managed to reserve stalks for their animals and sold the surplus. In all farming districts, land preparation has not started. It is expected to take place in the beginning of March.

Self-employment activities continue to rise, as the boost from the livestock sale strengthens income-generating activities. Construction activities contribute to a large portion of the employment opportunities. Additional job opportunities were also secured from the rehabilitation of the Hargeisa - Gabiley and Hargeisa - Berbera roads, such as bush clearing and bridge construction. Remittances from relatives abroad to their kin in the rural and urban areas were observed to have increased. In most parts of the region, the sale of charcoal was observed to have become a coping mechanism. A large number of residents in the Zeila district are involved in the salt production enterprise, as an income-generating source.

Markets and Trade Activities

Livestock supply to the main Hargeisa market included 60% of livestock from other districts of the Northwest and 40% from zone V of Ethiopia. Trade links between Djibouti and the northwest have normalized since the re-opening of the border. Consequently, negative impacts from the previous trade ban is expected to gradually improve in the coming months. Thus, the purchasing power of residents is expected to also strengthen. Livestock prices reported during the month were:

Shoats export quality Slsh70,000

Shoats local quality Slsh47-50,000

Cattle export quality Slsh220,000

Cattle local quality Slsh240,000

Camel export quality Slshl,250,000

Camel local quality Slsh550,000.

In Hargeisa market, daily livestock sales continue to rise. During the month, 5,000 – 7,000 shoats were sold. Diesel prices remain high, due to a standing dispute between the principal fuel importers and the government.

Currency Exchange

The Somaliland shilling continues to appreciate – the current exchange rate is Slsh2,750 to the dollar. As the peak Haj period approaches, livestock sales are expected to increase the supply of hard currency. The exchange rate of the Somaliland shilling to the dollar will continue to strengthen in the coming months.

Displacement/Migration

Displaced migrants from Ethiopia were observed in the border towns of Somaliland, e.g. Borama. The nutritional status of the IDPs in some of the villages assessed in February was poor, especially due to unhygienic conditions. Further north, the exodus of refugees from southern Somalia and Ethiopia has ceased with only 200 families remaining, who are temporarily settled in sub-urban towns of Gabiley and Arabsiyo. They are employed as farm laborers.

During the month, cases of diarrhea were reported in the Gabiley district. Incidences of Malaria related sicknesses, which were reported last month, in parts of Borama and the mountainous areas are now under control. In other districts, no unusual incidences were reported.