What is the Future of the Djibouti Peace Initiative?

Now, that the state government of Puntland, Somaliland, the Bay Region Authority and the faction leader Hussen Aideed have all denounced and officially declined to participate in the on-going Djibouti Peace Initiative, the question is ' what is the future of this peace process'?

In his Report of 16 Sept 1999  on the situation in Somalia the Secretary-General of the United Nations Mr. Kofi Anan mapped his vision of how to resurrect the Somali State and described in paragraph 8 - Peace Dividend Approach, danger of Parallel Initiatives, in paragraph 17 ..with Puntland joining hands with Somaliland the first step could be taken towards the resuscitation of Somalia, in  paragraph 39 - supportive of the IGAD "building Block" approach as the way forward in Somalia, in paragraph 40 - ...days of the Warlords were over  and in  paragraph 67 - ..approximately half of the Somali territory is peaceful,  practical approach to resolve the Somali crises.

H.E.the President of the Republic of  Djibouti Mr. Ismail Omar Guelle himself, in his speech at the 54th session of UN General Assembly on 22nd  Sept 99. made reference to the "building block" approach and the new reality on the ground in Somalia when he said :

"....INDEED IT IS EVOLVING INTO A COUNTRY OF STARK CONTRASTS BETWEEN THE TROUBLED CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS AND THE RALATIVELY STABLE AND PEACEFUL NORTH, NAMELY THE SELF-DECLARED "SOMALILAND" AND THE PUNTLAND REGION. THESE TWO REGIONS WERE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO ESCAPE MOST OF THE CONFLICT THAT RAVAGED OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY....."

".....THE REALITY IS THAT IN THE CONTEXT OF SOMALIA, CITIES, REGIONS AND COMMUNITIES ARE DEFINING THEIR OWN FUTURE. THIS MOVE TOWARD DECENTRALIZATION OR SELF-ADMINISTRATION BY MANY PARTS AND COMMUNITIES OF THE COUNTRY IS FUELED BY THE NEED TO SURVIVE. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, THREFORE, NEED TO SUPPORT ECONOMOCALLY THESE REGIONS OR COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE ACHIEVED RELATIVE PEACE, SECURITY AND DEVOLOPMENT. WE MUST REWARD THOSE WHO HAVE MADE SERIOUS EFFORTS TO RESTORE SECURITY AND PEACE TO PROTECT HUMAN RIGHTS AND TO PROVIDE BASIC SERVICES TO THEIR PEOPLE...."

There are large areas that have established local administrations that are functioning. Puntland and Somaliland - the so-called Northern Recovery Zones - together make up more than half of the Somali territories, and both have established small scale administrative capacities. The Bay Region and Hiran have been making steady progress to create peaceful environment for local administrative structures to take hold.

The premises of any peace initiative, as one can conclude from the statements of their excellencies, is supposed to make use of the remarkable achievements of the Recovery Zones as a model to lead others by example, by reinforcing their fledgling capacities - the so-called "peace dividend" approach.

Somalia Watch Organization believes that Djibouti Peace Initiative should focus on the basic theme of the "building blocks" approach to the resuscitation of Somalia, as the General Secretary rightly put it ," .. with Puntland joining hands with Somaliland the first step could be taken towards the resuscitation of Somalia". The remarkable achievements of the Recovery Zones cannot be sidelined. The Djibouti Peace Initiative should build on it, otherwise it may turn out to be another unfortunate attempt.