UN Warns Of Disaster In The Horn If Rains Fail

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Title: [SW News] (All Africa News Agency) <>UN Warns Of Disaster In The Horn If Rains Fail
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Date :[10 April 2000 10:09 PM EST]

UN Warns Of Disaster In The Horn If Rains Fail

Story Filed: Monday, April 10, 2000 10:09 PM EST

Addis Ababa (All Africa News Agency, April 10, 2000) - There's been no end to the chaos. And now another disaster may be in the making. Last week, the United Nations warned that if the coming rainy season fails, a major disaster could unfold in parts of Somalia.

Already, up to 650,000 people throughout the country are experiencing severe food and water shortages as a result of prolonged drought in several areas.

Climate experts who recently met at the 5th annual Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa, predict that there is a 50 percent chance the April Gu rains - which account for three-quarters of yearly crop yields, and are crucial for livestock pasture - might fail, tipping the balance from misery to tragedy.

"We are hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst," says Randolph Kent, UN Resident and Humanitarian Co-ordinator for Somalia. "The UN is already there on the ground, and looking at ways to gear up operations if things get worse".

The situation is of grave concern in the southern regions of Bakool, Gedo, Bay and Hiran where up to 425,000 Somalis don't have enough to meet their daily food needs.

Bakool region in the south has suffered seven consecutive poor harvests, and three poor rainy seasons back to back, drastically reducing crops and livestock which are the mainstays of the economy, according to the World Food Programme WFP.

A meagre 113 tons of sorghum was produced during the most recent harvest in Bakool, compared with over 1,500 tons in the same season during pre-war years. Elsewhere, in Somalia's northwest, northeast and central regions, up to 200,000 people are facing food and water shortages as well.

"We are still five to six months away from the next harvest," says Kevin Farrell, WFP Representative for Somalia. "Even if we do get some rain, it won't solve the immediate needs of the people most in need".

Malnutrition in children under 5 years of age has demonstrated an alarming rise in some areas. According to recent surveys by UNICEF, malnutrition has reached 30 percent in Rabdure town.

The survey established other levels as: 22 percent in Hoddur, and 21 percent in Wajid (all in Bakool region), and 24 percent in Bardera (Gedo region). Some five percent of these children are severely malnourished and require emergency therapeutic feeding.

"The survey results reflect a current situation in which children are highly vulnerable," says Gianfranco Rotigliano, UNICEF Representative for Somalia. "Always the first to suffer the effects of food shortages, as the impact of the drought begins to be felt".

Wells are drying up due to overuse, people and livestock forced to crowd around the sources that remain, leading inevitably to pollution. For the past eight months hundreds of families have migrated out from Gedo and Bakool regions.

Their movement has been toward riverine areas, south to Baidoa and Mogadishu, and as far northeast as Bossaso and Las Anod in search of food, water, and work in order to survive. Some Somalis have even crossed into Ethiopia in the hope of finding better conditions there.

Somalia's plight is mirrored throughout most of the Horn of Africa: Ethiopia's key Belg rains are four weeks late, and north-eastern Kenya is also suffering from drought. The problems compound one another.

For example, when rains fail in Ethiopia, the rivers run low in Somalia. And the greater regional population suffers en masse. By the end of April, it will be clear how successful the rains have been.

"In the next few weeks we will all be sky watching," says Farrell. "The bottom line is, if the rains fail, we will be dealing with a major catastrophe in Somalia".

Compounding the problem, security remains a major concern. In order to get help to the people who need it, there must be good security on the ground, and co-operation from Somali authorities.

Journeys into the heart of Somalia are often difficult due to poor infrastructure and the threat of attack on food convoys. Whilst the large fleet of trucks are operated by private transporters and are heavily guarded, these are often at risk from armed bandits.

Responding to the major disaster which this drought poses, will require support from the international aid community. Currently the UN system and its partners in Somalia are working together on emergency preparedness plans for procurement and provision of food, health and nutritional supplies.

But last week, a United Nations aircraft, carrying a pilot and three international staff members, was fired upon at the Kismayo airport, and as a result, all UN air and ground operations in the area were suspended until further notice.

The aircraft, a single-engine 9-seater Caravan, was rolling along for take-off when unidentified gunmen fired upon the plane from both sides of the runway, probably with AK-47 assault rifles.

One bullet entered the left side through a window and logged in a seat, another through the body of the aircraft between the cabin and tail sections. Nobody was injured in the shooting.

The fuel line and control mechanisms were intact, and the engine was unaffected, so the pilot completed the flight mission and took off, eventually landing in the south-central town of Baidoa.

The passengers - Bill Condie (UK), Jonathan Veitch (UK) and Edouard Beigbeder (French) - all of whom work for the United Nations Children's Fund UNICEF. The aircraft flew back to the northern Kenyan town of Mandera to refuel, enroute to the capital, Nairobi.

"We are fortunate that no one was killed, and that no one was in the seat where the bullet lodged. The gunmen could have seriously damaged the aircraft and caused a terrible crash," said Kevin Farrell, acting UN Co-ordinator for Somalia.

This shooting came one day after the UNICEF representative for Somalia visited Kismayo to explore the possibility of resuming UN humanitarian work in the area. Now plans to resume work in Kismayo anytime soon are severely curtailed.

Farrell declared Kismayo off-limits for all UN operations until it becomes clear who carried out the attack, and until the threat has been removed. There has been widespread insecurity in and around Kismayo for several years.

Kismayo, some 425 km southwest of the capital Mogadishu, has been the scene of on-again off-again clan-based fighting for control since former President Siad Barre was deposed in January 1991.

Last year,Marehan and Habre Gedir clan-based militias seized control of Kismayo, ousting Harti and other indigenous clan militias. However, it was unclear whether last week's shooting incident was related to factional conflicts.

Elsewhere, in the southern town of Merka, some 75 km southwest of Mogadishu along the coast, the UN has also been forced to suspend flights. The UN has called upon all Somali groups to respect the humanitarian work that international aid agencies.

SOURCE: WFP

Publication date: April 3, 2000

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