Rainfall (Overview of the Past Deyr Season)

There have been short light showers in the hills of eastern Sanaag that feed streams in western Bari, and in the Eyl district. Conditions are average for the end of the jilaal season. The gu rains are expected in mid-April.

Water availability is normal for the season, with some water remaining in berkads and with boreholes operating longer hours. In Goldogob (N. Mudug), boreholes are operating 23 hours a day - above average - due to heavy livestock concentration in the area. In Burtinle and Jalam (Nugal), the boreholes are dry, but the berkads still have water.

In Semade, the borehole has not been functioning for the past 4 months and the berkads are empty. Those remaining in the village have relied on water brought by pack camels. The borehole has recently been repaired (23/3), but there are no funds for the diesel to run the borehole and the community is relying on donations. In Jariban, berkads are empty, one of two boreholes is functional, and the shallow well has water.

Overall, pasture and grazing conditions are normal for the season, due to good deyr rains, which have contributed to good recovery from the severe water shortage in 1998/99.

The exception is in North Mudug, from Semade and Jariban eastwards to the coast, where pasture and grazing conditions are below normal and very poor, following the poor deyr rains in this area.

Livestock

In most of the regions, livestock conditions are average for the season, although milk production is below normal in some areas, due to low reproduction from the poor deyr rains. Following the normal deyr rains in most regions, goats and sheep are beginning to reproduce and are ready for the gu rains in April. Some camel reproduction is expected during the next deyr season (October), if the gu rains are normal.

In North Mudug, in the area from Semade and Jariban eastwards to the coast, livestock conditions are poor – goats and sheep are weak and camels are also deteriorating from fair to weak. Milk production is very low (20% of normal levels) and very few camels are pregnant (1% compared with the seasonal average of 17%) reflecting the poor deyr rains in this area. Camel reproduction (and milk production) cannot, therefore, be expected to recover to normal levels until at least April 2001. Low camel reproduction has long-term implications for re-stocking of livestock, as it is the most vital asset of the population.

Livestock diseases are constantly reported – endemic diseases include endo-parasites, camel respiratory diseases, and "roor" [astriasis] and anthrax. "Roor" is affecting 10-20% of camels with a 100% morbidity/mortality rate, further critically reducing camel herds including burden camels, the primary economic asset for the pastoralists.

Immediate veterinary assistance (including livestock drugs) is required. In Balibusle, livestock conditions are better, but camels are also affected by "roor". UNA (INGO) is expected to visit these areas shortly.

In most regions, coping mechanisms are normal for the season. However, in areas most affected by the severe water shortages in 1998/99, camel herders are taking food from the core household stock rather than relying on camel milk for sustenance, as is the norm, which indicates this to be a distress strategy.

Market Prices and Supply

The health and nutrition situation is average for the season, with good livestock sales apparently compensating for the poor milk production in some areas.

In North Mudug, from Semade and Jariban eastwards to the coast, health and nutrition conditions are below normal for the season, due to poor food availability, high food prices, and very low milk production, particularly given the shortage of camel milk, which is a primary source of food. In Semade, the families remaining in the village (50-75) have had no milk for the last 6 months, since all livestock left the village seeking water following the poor deyr rains. 

Displacement/Migration

Overall, displacement/ migration is normal for the season. In the Hawd border area, with Ethiopia’s Zone 5, there has been an increase in the concentration of livestock and people since January, due to the poor deyr rains in Zone 5.

In North Mudug, there was an exceptional livestock migration out of the area in December, following the very poor deyr rains. In addition, in Semade, due to the non-functional borehole up until March 23^rd, the village has been almost deserted with 50-70 families remaining, who are relying on water brought by pack camels for households and food sent from relatives.

Security

Overall, the security situation is good in the rural areas. Peace initiatives between the elders in North Mudug and South Mudug are resulting in improved security and wider grazing access for nomads in the border area. There were street demonstrations in the main towns (Bosasso on Friday 24/3, Gardo, Garowe and Galkaio on Saturday 25/3) related to the Djibouti Peace Process. However, the situation is calm. Elders are meeting with senior government ministers in Garowe over the next week, and no further incidents are anticipated at present.

There is narrow probability of getting precipitation during March in this part of the country. However, from the fourth week of the month onwards, the overall prevailing climatic conditions were in favor of rainfall to start.

The high grazing areas between the districts of Hudun and El–Afwein faced a severe water shortage in March. This occurred when the Aur-bowgays borehole, which was strategically the most important water source to serve that area, broke early in the month. Outside of this, the Hawd villages south of Lasanod and Einabo districts, which have hosted the majority of herds that have migrated from the Ethiopia Somali territory, have experienced a 20% price increase on water (from Ssh1,000 per 20 lt. to Ssh1,200 per 20 lt. of water at the present). In the rest of the region, the water availability remains unaffected.

The distribution of pasture to all ecological zones is estimated to support the livestock until the next rainy season. Despite the complexity and effects of the pasture and other resources, over exploitation of the grazing areas from the indigenous and the immigrant herds could have an adverse ecological impact on the communal grazing lands.

Livestock

The livestock nutritional status remained satisfactory in the month, so that most of the livestock retained sufficient energy to survive until the gu. The milk production continues to decline as the dry season progresses. The camel milk supply to urban markets has reduced to below normal levels, while in the Hawd and Sool plateau pastoral household milk consumption remained normal as a group of goats gave birth during the month. The meat production increased to above average levels.

The livestock health status is not facing any major diseases or epidemics, except endemic diseases including endo/ecto-parasite and respiratory diseases that claimed many animals.

Since the second week of the month, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Somali shilling climbed to its pre-haj level. This devaluation is partly due to decreasing demand of the shilling by the livestock exporters after the Haj. The supply of staple food commodities is good, while the price showed a slight increase. The prices of pastoral products, including meat, ghee, and camel milk, continue to increase to above normal levels for the urban consumers. Similarly, depending on the lagging supply condition, the charcoal price has rocketed to almost double, as compared to the same time last year (Ssh18,000/bag same time last year to Ssh35,000/bag this month).

General Situation

March coincides with the end of the dry season, and the onset of the rainy season, within the first and second half of the same month, respectively. As observed very recently, the karran/deyr rains obtained in late 1999 can be considered one of the best secondary rainy seasons experienced in these two regions, since 1992, with the exception of the El-Nino period in 1997. This reflects in the improved pasture/browsing production, which has been sufficient for local demand and demand from abnormally large herds that have migrated to the areas during part of the season (Feb-March).

Western coastal and sub coastal eco-zones were very different, due to failure of the heis rains in January. The coastal/sub-coastal zones did not receive the normal deyr rains.

Rainfall

As usual in March, formation of clouds were observed repeatedly, and, fortunately, some useful precipitation was reported in mid-March from various locations, towards the southeast and southwest of Hargeisa (along both sides of the Ethiopian border). The sparse and uneven distribution and sudden halt of such rains prematurely predicts a gloomy prospect for the anticipated main gu rains.

On the contrary, a majority of the interviewed traditional weather forecasters strongly believe that this is the onset of above normal rains, which would match those received 50 years ago. As previously reported by the traditional weather forecasters, that year was marked with continuous rainfall for over 40 days resulting in an outbreak of malaria. Therefore, pastoralists in the west named that year habtii, whereas those of the east named it duumaale.

Traditional forecasters believe typical climatic conditions of any year repeats itself in the 50th year. Therefore, computations made by most of the local people leads to a conclusion contradicting findings from the Climate Outlook Forum of February 2000 in Arusha.

Reports from the field confirmed normal access to sufficient water availed from three boreholes (Alybaday and G/baladh) located along the Ethiopian border. A large number of camel herds from the Hawd were browsing within a maximum radius of about 40km around those boreholes, although these herds are concentrated in rangelands between Baligubadle and the boreholes.

Water shortage problems are reported only from a few agro-pastoral settlements to the southwest of Hargeisa, and from pastoral areas to the southeast of Hargeisa, which either did not received good deyr rains or have fewer number of water reservoirs and dams.

A higher proportion of livestock migrated from the seasonal grazing eco-zones of the coastal and sub-coastal areas and from Ethiopia – all concentrating along the mountainous and Hawd plateau. Unexpectedly, vegetation is available in those zones, which has been sufficient for the abnormally high demand. This reflects the positive impact of the good 1999 deyr rains, which contributed significantly to the carrying capacity per unit of land.

Despite high grazing competition, livestock were in normal condition, except for some of the lactating/pregnant cattle, which have lost some weight.

Land preparation activities began on the second week of the month, as is usual. This activity is performed using hired tractors mounted with a disc plow. It seems that the number of farmers involved in this operation has increased, as compared to previous years. It is estimated that only 10-15% of the better off and middle households is involved in such activities.

Peak livestock trading for the Haj season ceased on the 10^th of March. Afterwards, trade related activities were normal. Employment and self-employment activities, linked with activities other than livestock trade, were considered normal.

Currency Exchange

Increased demand for hard currency ($) from the pilgrims halted the gradual appreciation of the Somaliland shilling against the dollar during the first week of March. The exchange rate remained between Slsh2,750 to Slsh2,850 against the $1 during the month.

Displacement/Migration

Repatriation of Somaliland refugees restarted and about 1,000 voluntary returnees arrived during the second week of the month.

There were no reports of significant health related problems throughout these regions.

Security