After nearly a
decade of post-Cold War interventionism and the politics of human rights, things are
changing in Washington. The Sept. 11 attacks have flipped U.S. geopolitical thinking on
its ear, opening opportunities for second- and third-tier powers to exploit the
anti-terrorism campaign. They now will be able to pursue their own local and regional
interests with Washington's blessings.
The United States has garnered the support of many expected and unexpected
allies in its self-proclaimed war on terrorism. Britain is leading the peacekeeping
forces in Afghanistan, Germany and Japan are both making their largest overseas
deployments since the end of World War II, and former rogues like Sudan are offering
intelligence and support to the U.S.-led campaign.
These contributions, however, are more than a show of solidarity with the United States
in its time of trouble. The fight against terrorism is transforming the international
geopolitical system, creating opportunities for nations around the world to exploit
Washington's sudden shift in attention. Part of the fallout of Sept. 11 is that issues
that once were key, like the potential rise of China as a global power, have become lower
priorities. This change means Washington will no longer restrain many secondary and
tertiary powers from pursuing their own local and regional interests so long as
they tie those interests to the concept of anti-terrorism.
For Washington, this shift entails a surge in support for its immediate goal not only
from traditional European and Asian allies but also from many states formerly considered
pariahs or at least undesirables. For countries like Germany and Japan, the war on terror
offers an opportunity to expand their own re-emergence into the international security
system while proving their worth to the United States. More importantly over the longer
term, however, Washington may condone or at least not condemn actions by
other nations that it would not have countenanced under policy guidelines heavily
influenced by the concept of human rights.
U.S. geopolitical thinking has flipped upside down. Washington, rather than having
easily defined enemies like the Soviet Union during the Cold War and missile-proliferating
rogue nations thereafter, now has an ill-defined and highly diffuse enemy: terrorism.
To effectively tackle the issue, the United States is looking to, and accepting
assistance from, nearly every quarter of the globe. For their part, allies new and old are
seeking to exploit the change in U.S. attitudes, finally turning to their own advantage
the United States' position as the dominant power. In essence, other nations are
portraying their national interests as commensurate with Washington's broader agenda.
This is happening in two ways.
For some states, such as Germany and Japan, Washington's consuming focus on terrorism
offers an opportunity both to advance their own domestic agendas and to show their
usefulness to the United States. As part of their contributions to the anti-terrorism
coalition, Berlin and Tokyo have deployed their largest overseas military contingents
since World War II Japan to the Indian Ocean and Germany to the Horn of Africa.
This not only sets a precedent for future deployments but also demonstrates their value to
the United States and they can do this while accepting few serious risks.
London, too, has stepped forward, offering to lead the peacekeeping force in
Afghanistan. This has served both to assert Britain's role as the United States' foremost
ally and to give London greater control over the future shape of operations in
Afghanistan, rather than leaving it to be drawn into a U.S.-created situation over which
it will have little control.
On the other side of the coin are nations that are exploiting the new U.S. agenda to
press local and regional policies that Washington would have frowned upon prior to Sept.
11. This is becoming evident throughout Africa, the Middle East and Asia, with India and
Israel extreme examples.
Israel has broadened its campaign against Palestinian militants, incurring only weak
criticism from the United States. Meanwhile, New Delhi has raised to a new level the issue
of Kashmir and Pakistan's alleged support for militants, shifting tens of thousands of
troops to the border and implicitly threatening nuclear war. Washington's long-term
relationship with Islamabad, which was never entirely stable, is shifting into obscurity
now that the U.S. goals in Afghanistan are nearly achieved. India, then, has gained
substantially more room to threaten and bring force against Pakistan than ever before.
Elsewhere in Asia, the United States is increasing or re-establishing military
cooperation with nations facing internal security threats, like the Philippines and
Indonesia. These countries, which have known Muslim separatism and militantism for
decades, now gain U.S. weapons and training, get potential human rights issues overlooked
and don't have to concede to U.S. interventionism within their borders.
Other examples abound in Africa, which is taking on greater significance to the United
States in its continued pursuit of al-Qaida. Ethiopia has allegedly deployed troops into
southern Somalia, likely with the underlying goal of supporting a semi-autonomous local
government that would provide port access to the landlocked nation. Although this may
undermine the United Nations-backed interim government in Somalia, Ethiopia's actions
could help block the return of al-Qaida members fleeing Afghanistan.
Algeria is also offering assistance. It was the first Arab country to publicly provide
Washington with a list of suspected terrorists. Algeria is using alleged links between
al-Qaida and domestic groups including the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat,
an offshoot of the Armed Islamic Group to gain Washington's support and perhaps
assistance in ending a 10-year civil war.
Even Sudan, a country attacked by the United States following the 1998 African embassy
bombings, is offering assistance. But in exchange, Khartoum wants Washington to reduce its
support for the Southern People's Liberation Movement/Army. The United States is one of
the largest funding sources for Operation Lifeline Sudan, a U.N.-led initiative providing
relief and supplies to southern rebels.
With the hunt for al-Qaida and affiliated groups a continuing priority, Washington is
opening the door to a massive shift in the global geopolitical situation. Around the
world, new opportunities have been presented to nations long held in check by the global
dominance of the United States. Secondary and tertiary powers are now at greater liberty
to pursue their own interests without fear of repercussions from the United States
so long as they lay them out as part of the war on terrorism.
The world is about to become a much more interesting place.