- Title: [SW Analysis] (Nuradin Aden Dirie ) A
Potential Conflict of Interest: Beyond Djibouti
Conference
- Posted by/on:[AAJ][26 July 2000]
A Potential
Conflict of Interest Beyond Djibouti Conference
By: Nuradin Aden Dirie - ndirie@hotmail.com
A lot of people have felt differently for or against
Djibouti conference, both positive as well as negative
feelings have surfaced. Many unanswered questions and
suspicions have recently overshadowed the conference
and its intentions. It seems that some of the
unwavering enthusiasm the Somali people had for the
conference, is being eroded by the uncertainty about
its method and its eventual practicability
One of the more common questions asked, and suspicions
tagged, revolve around the design and the hidden
agenda of Mr Gelle about the whole issue. While one of
his intentions could be the noble one of a brother
feeling for his brother, certainly felt by Djibouti
people, the not so noble intention is what has been
the more worrying to the Somali people. Reading and
listening to Mr Gelle's speeches, you tend to notice
clear indications and strong hints about Mr Gelle's
intentions. The president has been very consistent in
his speeches to clearly implicate two things, that the
whole world have given the responsibility of solving
Somali's problem to Djibouti, and secondly the whole
world is ready to reconstruct Somalia back to its
feet, while Djibouti plays a leading role in every
stage of the process.
I have picked some original quotes from president
Gelle's speeches (translations are at the end of the
article) I felt it is important to cite those sections
as to be fair to president Gelle, after all it is
important to hold the person on what he / she said. I
have referenced and numbered the corresponding
translations for those who wish to refer to and for
the rest to proceed with the reading.
On 21st of March 2000, speaking to the Somali
intellectuals the president said
1. "Dhanka dibadda, malaha waad maqleyseen
tallaaboyinkii is daba-joogga ahaa ee aanu ka qaadnay:
shirarkii caalamka ee aan beesha adduun-weynaha uga
dhaadhicineyney qaddiyaddan iyo aragtida aan ka
leenahay. Waad la socoteen booqashooyinkii aan dhawaan
ku soo maray Waddammada IGAD iyo dunida Carabta qaar
ka mid ah qaar kalena aan tegi doono. Waxaan ku
dadaaleyney in ay dunidu cod midaysan ka yeelato
arrinta Soomaaliya, taana waa lagu guulaysay".
The president has been very helpful in this case to
clarify what that "codkaa mideysan (unified voice)"
should be when he continued to say;
2. "Adduun-weynuhu, gobol ahaan iyo caalam aahaanba,
wuxuu go'aamiyey in codka dunida lagu mideeyo
taageerada hindisihii aan soo jeediney, in ay Jabuuti,
iyadoo ka wakiil ah IGAD iyo beesha caalamkaba, ay
hoggaamiso geeddi-socodka nabad-raadinta Soomaaliya"
On 2nd of May 2000 in his inaugural speech, speaking
to Somali delegates including cultural Somali chiefs
the president reiterated;
3. "Waxaa intaa dheer in aan ku dadaalney inaan ku
tiigsan soo jeedida golaha loo dhan yahay ee qaramada
midoobey balse aan qaadano olole aan dhamaan dowladaha
arinta Soomaaliya ay khuseyso aan soomarney,
kaadhaadhicino ka daadejino ee aan helno ra'yi
mideysan oo ku wajahan nabad raadinta soomaaliya iyo
in lanagu aamino inaan arinkaasi anaga (Jabuuti)
maanta nalagu daayo oo naloogu faataxeeyo, beesha
aduunka ayagoo ku mahadsan arintaasi wey inaga
aqbaleen"
On the same speech the president clarified his other
conforming disclosure when he said;
4. "Waxa aan idiin haaynaayi waxaa weeyaan jimciyada
quruumaha ka dhexeysaa hadey tahay ururka reer yurub
haduu yahay baanka dunida iyo aantafishyoonada
ceynkaasoo kale ah hadey yihiin dib u dhiskii
soomaaliya heegan in loo yahay shirkaana laga sugayo
natiijooyin iijaabi ah"
Mr Gelle, speaking especially to the Arab delegates on
that same day of the conference the president directly
spoke to them and switched to Arabic language and he
said;
5. "Wabi munaasabati inciqaadi hadihilliqaa al
mubaarak aladii yadumu nukhbatan mukhtaaratan min
zucamaai cahsaairi soomaaliy fainii uwajihu nidaa'an
xaarran ilal umatil carabiyah likeey tadaca wa
tatabanaa khudatin caajilatin tahdifu ilaa icaadatil
binaa watacmiir maa damarat hul xarbul waxshiyati
alatii istamarat akthara min caqdin mina azamaan wa
icaadati haykalati dawlati soomaaliyah"
The ever more helpful president did not shy away from
explaining what sort of "khudah (plan) " he has in
mind when he continued with his elaboration;
6. "Walkhudatil carabiyah alatii aqsuduhaa hiya
khudatun shabiihatun bitilka latii wudicat li icaadati
tacmiiri oorobaa bacdal xarbal caalamiyati thaaniya
walatii curifat laaxiqan bi ismil khudati maarshaal"
The president in a sense has been practical about this
issue and has even suggested ways to achieve this
Marshal Plan and said;
7. "Walitaxqiiq mithla haadal hadaf wakhulqu aaliyatin
li tanfiid dalikal mashruucil xayawiy fa inii adcuu a
duwalil carabiya a shaqiiqa wa macahaa sanaadiiqil al
carabiya li tanmiyat ilaa tacbiyati kaafatil
imkaaniyaatil mutaaxa li musaahamat fii inshaail
sanduuqin yusamaa sanduuqa al tadaamun li binaai
soomaal"
On 15th of June 2000 opening the third phase of the
conference the president echoed his implications again
when he said
8. "Socdaaladaas isdaba jooga ahaa ee aan ku soo marey
dalal badan ujeedadoodu weyna waxey aheyd in la
xoojiyo mowqifka isaga ah iyo in ay beesha caalamka u
diyaargarowdo garab galka iyo aqoonsiga dawlada
soomaaliyeed ee dhalandoonta inshaaalaahu tacaalaa,
waxaan kaloo ka codsaney marka la dhiso kumeelgaarka
ah in ay u garabgalaan dib u dhiska dalka burbursanaa
toban sanno iyo dheeraadba, waaxaan idiinku
bishaareyneynaa in arintaa iyada ah in diyaar loo
yahay"
In every opportunity presented to him, The president
has been very consistent indeed about communicating
these two issues, about the whole world giving the
responsibility to sort Somali's problems to Djibouti
and about the reconstruction of Somalia by the
international community via Djibouti. This has been
what looks like a conformation of some of the doubts
that Djibouti has an economic interest out of the
outcome of this conference and aims to establish a
protégée Somali government based in Djibouti. There
was even a stronger assertion by the Djibouti foreign
Minster suggesting that the Somali government could
temporarily be based in Djibouti city, yes you heard
it right, Djibouti city.
To be fair to Mr Gelle as well as those who doubt the
intentions of this conference and question the hidden
agenda, what we can get out of this concurrent
promulgation is that their could be two explanations,
the first being that Mr. Gelle is spiritually sincere
about the Somali situation and he is trying very hard
to make peace in Somalia, reconstruct Somalia,
re-establish Somali government and direct and care
about Somali destiny, the explanation could even
suggest that Mr Gelle is trying to do too much at the
same time, sort of too good to be true. However I
personally gave up the idea of politicians, especially
African ones, being saints.
The second explanation alleges that Mr Gelle is indeed
trying to bank into the Somali misery and tap the
economic and indirect benefits of the Somali peace
process, the explanation continues to propound that
indeed Mr. Gelle was serious about the establishment
of Somali co-operation fund, and there are high
possibilities that fund has already been set-up and
entrusted with Djibouti government during Mr Gelle's
tour to the Arab countries and long before the
conference is even concluded, a fund, the explanation
pronounces, that is as suggested by Mr Gelle himself
is akin to the Marshall Plan, a fund that would enable
the Djibouti government to design to re-establish a
Somali government and also enables it to commence
training Somali army, police, governmental and civil
institutions all from zero and all in exile in
Djibouti. Indeed Djibouti will have to put into its
business plan some sort of 5 -10 years plan to move to
its second phase of transferring governmental
institutions to Somalia itself, Mr. Gelle also has to
put some test criteria upon which that transfer could
be possible.
My major concern is not about the Djibouti government
largely benefiting from whatever hundreds of millions
of dollars Arabs and aiding governments contribute to
that Somali co-operation fund every year, my major
concern is also not about Djibouti government aiming
to create jobs and generate incomes and enhance flow
of money in their country, neither my major concern is
about the prosperity of the Djibouti government and
its people about the benefits of other peoples'
hardship, my major concern however is about the level
of control the Djibouti government will have on that
fragile protégé Somali government based in Djibouti
city. A friend of mine have tried very hard to assure
me that Djibouti government could not be that powerful
when a Somali government is established, my friend
have even suggested that the population of whole
Djibouti is equal to the population of Bosaso city
alone, and the economy of Puntland region is even
higher than the economy of Djibouti state. While that
suggestion of my friend could more or less be the
case, what my friend did not realise is when the seat
of the recognised Somali government and its livers of
power are based in Djibouti city, with the possibility
of its treasury being at the hands of Mr. Gelle, the
Djibouti president will certainly have an undue
influence and control of what decisions that Somali
government in exile can and cannot reach and make. It
is also important to mention at this point that given
the present circumstances the "co-operation Fund"
could be that sole income of that Somali government in
exile.
Moreover that Somali government could be one of two,
that government could be a team of collaborators and
Mr. Gelle's yes-men, a bunch of corrupted Siad Barre
residuals who will not mind, indeed with pleasure are
willing to take their share of the national cake to
keep their mouth shut or even go with the programme.
There is a body of evidence and a host of indicators
to suggest the inevitable, though unfortunate, follow
of this path. Former Siad Barre's yes-men are
determined to do it all over again, I guess it should
be easier the second time round. On the other hand
that government could be a one which genuinely tries
to objectively work for the rehabilitation of the
exiled Somali government, that government could be a
one which tries to not stay in exile more than it is
necessary to do, they could aim to go back to Somalia
as quickly as possible, but the question will be,
where will that leave Mr. Gelle and his influence
guided by his interest and perhaps by the interest of
his country? Where will that leave the hidden agenda
and the economic interest of Mr. Gelle and his
government?
We will then have a Somali government "in exile" which
sees its interest in going back to Somalia, and a host
country, perhaps with control over the guest
government's treasury, which definitely will not see
their interest to be in relinquishing that control as
well as that commercialised political dividend. This
grim scenario and a potential conflict of interest put
both parties in a collision course, but what chance in
hell will a fragile government in exile will have to
confront a structured government in its country and
perhaps against the sole funding resources that
protégé government has? I think the answer is as good
as every body's guess.
The question at this stage will be what tactics will
Mr. Gelle use to control or perhaps cover the whole
issue? And what survival strategies the Somali
government in exile will adopt? One obvious tactic is
that Mr. Gelle could argue that based on his test
criteria, the government is not ready yet to move to
Somalia, and if his criteria seem to be fulfilled he
could embark on some re-oxidation exercise to make
sure those tests are failed, and that is the scenario
which personally worries me the most. Suppose that Mr.
Gelle put in place a stability test in order for the
government to move back and resume the control of its
co-operation fund, for some reason, known to Mr Gelle,
he decided not to go past that test, one re-oxidation
exercise open to Mr. Gelle will be a destabilisation
card, and their we go again in a vicious cycle. I just
hope that we would not need to reach this stage but
then again being at the mercy of a politician like Mr.
Gelle does not make me homelike, not at all.
It is a grim scenario which should be a major concern
to all of us Somalis, I asked myself what can be done
at this stage to avoid falling into such a scenario, I
have found myself being in a loop of events, should
the conference be built on the present peace and
progress in Somalia or should peace and progress be
built on the conference and its outcome? I glanced at
the Somali situation and discovered that there was a
lot of progress that has been made in most of Somalia.
In regional governances, the Somaliland, the Puntland,
the Hiran administration, the newly Bay-Bakol region
and many more on a city and town level, I have also
discovered that Mogadishu and Kismayo and between them
needed political stability and some sort of an agreed
governance structure. It was here that I asked myself
whether the conference itself was ill timed, I also
questioned whether the drive towards unitary style of
governance was also ill advised. For the unitary
centralised government is what can make the fall into
that scenario highly possible. It is also highly
dubious to recommend (by the draft constitution) to
base the upcoming Somali federal administration on the
eighteen regional provinces, to me, this is a clear
attempt to destabilise the present regional
administrations that constitute more than one province
of the last eighteen provinces. I was not surprised
when Puntland authorities have strongly objected to
the conference as a whole, it seems to me that this
latest suggestion is directly aimed at them, for
Somalilnd administration, for instance, they were
promised a special status and special committee to
look at their situation, Digil and Mirfleh are still
fighting for their lost lands and most of the southern
regions are either based on a single provincial
administration or have nothing to present on
administrational front and hence nothing to lose.
Puntland, in my opinion, was wise to realise that the
only hedgehog in the slaughterhouse is they as far as
the Djibouti conference is concerned.
I tried to answer my question of what can be done to
avoid falling into that scenario, it transpired to me
that my answer embody two sides, a side which is more
drastic and another which is simple and
straightforward. The more drastic one is for Djibouti
government and Mr. Gelle in particular to backtrack
from the whole conference and allow the organic
governmental growth we are seeing in Somalia today.
Let them proceed with their own pace and with their
own relative amount. The more straightforward side of
my answer is for Mr. Gelle to keep to his pledge that
Djibouti only facilitates and only Somalis decide. One
might also question, what can Mr Gelle do to prove
that he is not into making profit out of Somalia
misery? Obviously we would expect Mr. Gelle to refrain
from his controlling style, which he is dealing with
the conference at the moment, it is a clear sign and a
clear proclamation of " who is the boss around here".
We Somalis would also expect from Mr. Gelle to come
clean of the company he now keeps. Mr. Gelle should
ditch former Siad Barre dummies and the most corrupted
individuals we have ever known on Somali soil.
Corresponding Translations
1. On the international level, perhaps you heard about
the persisting steps we have taken: the intentional
meetings in which we convinced the international
community about this issue and OUR view about it. You
are aware of the visits we have recently made to IGAD
countries and some of the Arab world that we have
visited and some that we will visit. We were trying
our best to make the whole world to have a unified
voice about Somalia issue, and we have succeeded in
achieving that
2. The world, regionally and internationally, have
decided that the voice of the world should be united
in supporting the initiative WE have called for, that
Djibouti, representing IGAD and the international
communities, should lead the Somali peace process.
3. Furthermore we have tried not to rely only on the
call we made at the United Nations but to take a
campaign where we visited all those countries which
have a stake in Somalia issue, to explain to them and
to convince them and to get a united view about Somali
peace process and to entrust that issue today with us
(Djibouti) and leave it for us, and "naloogu
faataxeeyo", the international community have
thankfully accepted that from us.
4. What WE have for you is that be it the united
nations, be it the European union, the world bank or
be it those sorts of organisations that they are ready
for the reconstruction of Somalia and positive
outcomes are being expected from this conference.
5. And on the occasion of holding this auspicious
meeting, which includes a SELECTED pick of Somali
tribal chiefs, I will warmly call on the Arab world to
put in place and devise a quick step which intends to
reconstruct and build what the savage war, which has
continued for some time, has destroyed, a step which
also intends to reassemble the skeleton of the Somali
government.
6. And the Arab plan which I mean is a similar plan
which has been put in place for the reconstruction of
Europe after the world war II and the one which was
known as the Marshal Plan
7. In order to achieve this kind of aim and to create
structures to execute this lively project I will like
to call upon the brethren Arab countries together with
Arab financial institutions for development to fill
all the requirements needed to contribute for the
creation of a fund known as the co-operation fund for
the construction of Somalia.
8. The main objectives of those continuos tours which
we have visited with several countries were to
strengthen that very stance and that the international
community to be prepared for the support and the
recognition of the upcoming Somali government with the
grace of Allah the most high, WE have also requested
from them when the transitional government is
assembled to support the reconstruction of the ruined
country for the past ten years and more, I will
happily announce to you that task is ready.
[
Analysis] |
