Nile
River Politics: Who Receives Water?
0107 GMT, 000810
Egyptian
regional foreign policy has shifted. Instead of fostering
conflicts and supporting rebels, Cairo is solving conflicts
and apparently giving up control over its most vital resource
– the Nile river. Backed by the West, a new initiative among
the Nile Basin riparian states will redistribute more
equitably the river’s water usage rights. Until now, Egypt
prevented development in order to maintain its monopoly over
the river. Cairo’s decision to cooperate is motivated by its
need for regional stability and economic development.
Analysis
Officials
from 10 African nations met in Khartoum over the weekend,
reported the Panafrican news agency on Aug 7. The second
meeting within the last month between cabinet ministers from
Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and the six Great Lakes states, focused
on the plans for the redistribution of the region’s most
vital resource – the Nile river.
Backed by the
World Bank, the United Nations, several European countries and
Washington, the plan lays the groundwork for the river’s
economic development. Historically, Egypt has monopolized the
longest river in the world and prevented development
throughout the region. Now Cairo is supporting the
redistribution plans. The reason for the change of heart is
simple – Cairo needs regional stability in order to advance
its own economic growth.
For half a
century, Egypt
has maintained its monopoly over the Nile by fostering
regional instability. Cairo backed rebel groups in
Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia. Addis Ababa claims that Cairo
provided military intelligence, training and arms to
separatist rebels, contributing to Ethiopia’s civil war and
the eventual partitioning of the country into Ethiopia and
Eritrea. Although Cairo denies the allegations, the government
admits to remaining in constant contact with rebel leaders
from Sudan.
In addition
to destabilizing its fellow riparian states, Egypt has
maintained its ownership of the Nile through a 1959 treaty
with Sudan. The agreement gives Egypt rights to 87 percent of
the river’s water. Sudan receives the remaining 13 percent.
Eighty-six percent of the Nile’s water originates in the
Ethiopian highlands. Amazingly Ethiopia received no
share of the river’s resources under the agreement. Although
Addis Ababa has repeatedly declared its right to develop the
Nile’s resources, the country’s protracted conflicts have
prevented that development. And although Sudan receives a
small portion of the Nile’s water usage, it cannot develop
along the river without Egyptian consent.
But a
changing economic landscape has spurred a shift in Egyptian
foreign policy. South Africa is pushing for an integrated
southern African economy while building up its military and
transforming itself into the world’s economic gateway to the
continent. In 1997, South Africa received almost 40 percent of
all foreign investment in Africa and 90 percent of all
portfolio investment, reported The Economist.
In response,
Cairo now wants to strengthen its own economic and political
position. In fact, Egypt’s foreign minister, Amr Musa,
recently signed several agreements with South Africa aimed at
garnering a portion of South Africa’s bounty of foreign
investment for itself. And with the considerable drop in World
Bank loans – from $550 million in 1999 to only $50 million
this year, Egypt is looking to local trade to boost its
economy.
But in order
to foster economic growth, Cairo must first quell the
region’s conflicts. Indeed, the government’s support for
regional insurgents has declined recently. Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak has led the peace negotiations between the
government and rebels in Sudan and sent delegates to the
Somali peace conference in Djibouti. Egypt will likely retain
relations with regional insurgents in case of future need. For
the moment, however, Egypt’s interest is focused on warming
relations with Ethiopia and Sudan.
Mubarak’s
peace initiatives however won’t resolve the region’s most
contentious issue – water rights. Created in 1993, the Nile
Basin Initiative has only recently begun to make real
progress. The recent agreements reached this past week on
hydro-electric power development, power sharing cooperatives,
river regulation and water resources management will be
finalized at an extraordinary ministerial meeting in December.
The new
policies will cancel out the 1959 Egyptian-Sudanese treaty and
redistribute water usage rights among the riparian states.
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan will form one development program
and the remaining six Great Lakes member states – Burundi,
the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and
Uganda – will form the other joint program.
Initiative
officials are positioning themselves to gain international aid
and investment at the upcoming summit of the International
Consortium Co-operation on the Nile (ICCON), scheduled for
February 2001.
Cairo will
need to employ its powers of persuasion to maintain its
water monopoly. Although Egypt has agreed to cooperate on the
development of the Nile, the plans will diminish the river’s
flow into the North African country. Cairo is well aware of
the economic impact of the river’s redistribution to
Ethiopia as well as Addis Ababa’s disdain for Egyptian olive
branches.
Egypt’s
willingness to cooperate would seem to contradict its
historical domination of the Nile. The contradiction, however,
is only semantic. As the river’s most experienced user,
Egypt can employ its considerable experience to participate in
dam development and water resource management as well as other
projects in Ethiopia and the Sudan, thereby continuing
Egyptian rule over one of the world’s most famous rivers. |