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Opinions expressed in this column are those of the contributors and not necessarily those of SW. The Disintegration of Puntland State is a Matter of Time By
Mohamoud Abdi, (mshmgole@aol.com) The
choice of this provocative and cataclysmic title is deliberate, but not
without justification. Consciously or inadvertently, Presidents
Abdullahi Yusuf and Jama Ali Jama and their supporters are contributing
to that end. There
is anecdotal evidence that one of the main objectives of the
Transitional National Government (TNG) in Mogadishu has been, and still
is, the disintegration of the autonomous regional government of Puntland
and its integration with Mogadishu. The TNG considers Puntland a major
obstacle in its way. The
two Presidents of Puntland, Col. Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and Col. Jama Ali
Jama, have different views of the TNG and its relationship with
Puntland. While Jama Ali Jama considers the TNG as the legitimate
national government of Somalia with whom he can do business, Abdullahi
Yusuf sees it merely as a political faction that has a foothold in a
small enclave in Mogadishu. He does not recognise its legitimacy as a
government and he wouldn't deal with it as such. Fortunately for the TNG, the current political turmoil in Puntland serves its objectives rather well. Consciously or otherwise, both men are working hard towards the dismantling of the Puntland administration. It is not a secret that the medium-term objective of President Jama is the integration of Puntland with the TNG. He has close relationship with its leaders and, it has been widely reported, that they financed his campaign for the presidency of Puntland. If the present political crisis in Puntland ends in his favour, the road to Mogadishu will be cleared and Puntland as an administration will be consigned to the dustbin of history. It will be a matter of time before a governor appointed from Mogadishu arrives in Bossasso. Equally likely, the current stalemate may end in favour of Abdullahi Yusuf. In fact, he is believed to have a better chance of success. Unlike Jama Ali Jama, Abdullahi Yusuf is not suspected of planning to drive Puntland into the arms of the TNG. But his alleged willingness to use force to settle the matter may equally serve the TNG’s goal. Victory by military means will come at a heavy price. The bloodshed that will result from the fighting will surely leave bitterness and animosity that will undoubtedly make it impossible to hold Puntland together as an entity. bdullahi
Yusuf may win the war, but he will surely lose the peace. Such a war may
in fact speed up the process of disintegration. It will be a matter of
time before Puntland is carved up, by force if necessary, between the
TNG and Somaliland. Will Puntland pull back from the brink? Will peace
in Puntland be given a chance? I sincerely hope so. Mohamoud Abdi, mshmgole@aol.com |
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