The question of whether Somalia holds significant, commercially viable oil reserves has recurred periodically for decades, driven by a combination of preliminary geological surveys, the country’s position along prospective offshore basins shared with more thoroughly explored neighboring waters, and periodic renewed interest from international exploration companies.
Early interest in Somali oil potential dates back to surveys conducted well before the collapse of central government in 1991, when several international companies held exploration concessions and conducted preliminary seismic and geological work both onshore and in offshore blocks. This early work suggested geological formations broadly similar to those that have produced significant oil and gas discoveries elsewhere in the region, though preliminary indications of this kind fall well short of confirmed, commercially producible reserves.
The collapse of the Somali state in 1991 effectively halted this exploration activity for the better part of two decades. The combination of security risk, the absence of a stable legal and regulatory framework governing resource rights, and unresolved questions about which level of government, federal or regional, held authority over resource concessions made large-scale exploration investment impractical for most international operators during this period.
As governance stabilized in various regions from the 2000s onward, renewed interest emerged, with exploration agreements signed in some cases at the federal level and in others directly with regional administrations such as Puntland and Somaliland, occasionally producing overlapping or disputed claims over the same territory. Resolving these jurisdictional questions has been recognized as essential to attracting the kind of long-term investment that serious exploration and eventual production would require.
Somalia Watch views the oil question as one where genuine potential exists alongside genuine uncertainty, and where the greater near-term priority for the country is establishing clear, broadly accepted governance over resource rights, so that if commercially viable reserves are eventually confirmed, the benefits can be shared transparently and equitably rather than becoming a further source of internal dispute.