DECEMBER 31, 1999 - Asiaweek  JANUARY 7, 2000 VOL. 25 NO. 52

      Past Lessons, Future Tests
      Asia must learn how to develop, implement and maintain the right social
      software -- Meritocracy, Peace, Honesty

      By KISHORE MAHBUBANI

 

"At this historic moment -- when the ascendancy of Europe is so rapidly coming to an end, when Asia is         swelling with resurrected life, and the theme of the 20th century seems destined to be an all-embracing conflict
between the East and the West -- . . . the future faces into the Pacific, and understanding must follow it there."

      Asian triumphalism, circa 1995? No! U.S. historian Will Durrant, 1935.
      Asia has clearly been a land of promise. Yet it has lost most of the 20th
      century -- even much of the second millennium -- while Europe and later
      America shot ahead in human achievements, colonized the globe, and took
      control of the world economy. The picture had looked very different at the
      last turn of the millennium. China was reaching toward new heights under
      the Song Dynasty. One of the busiest cities of the world was emerging in
      Southeast Asia, in Angkor Wat. Indian and Arabic societies were ahead of
      Europe in learning. And Asia's advance continued for several centuries.
      Then, for most of the past five hundred years, Asians stopped learning.
              
      To avoid losing the next century, Asians must resume the learning process
      they have aborted for centuries. They have to ruthlessly analyze their
      past. They have to understand, for example, why so many Asians allowed
      themselves to be colonized by so few Europeans. What went wrong? They must
      further determine what went right in the West. Many would want to credit
      Europe's success to purely material factors: Its domination of science and
      technology in the past five centuries. Superior European weapons subdued
      large Asian masses. But to look at the "hardware" alone, while ignoring
      the "software" advantages of European societies, would be a mistake.
      Distilling the wrong lessons may be even worse for Asia than distilling no
      lessons at all. And learning the right lessons is becoming more crucial as
      history fast-forwards into the next millennium. The velocity of change is
      accelerating. Societies with the right competitive advantages will leap
      ahead even faster. Those without will fall behind further.

      Finding the right software should be easy. Successful societies exist.
      Best practices are visible. Why not copy? After all, Asia has copied and
      even improved hardware. But even the successful societies may not
      understand the real software fueling their success. The advice they give
      to developing societies, often with good intentions, has been simple: The
      key ingredients for success are democracy and free markets. Yet some
      societies, including major nations, which tried instant transformations to
      democracy have come to grief. So too those societies which tried
      free-market economics without the right institutional frameworks in place.
      Deeper principles explain the success of the developed societies. A short
      article like this cannot provide all the answers. But let me suggest three
      key principles that may be found in the software of success.

      The first is "meritocracy." When capitalism destroyed feudalism (clanism in Somalia) in Europe
      in the 19th century, it moved away from aristocracy towards meritocracy.
      Capitalism, with its essential ingredient of "creative destruction,"
      generated new elites. Democracy provided another institutional process for
      flushing out old elites and churning out new ones. Both capitalism and
      democracy were therefore not purely ends in themselves (even though they
      are ideologically worshipped in many Western minds). They were also
      functional instruments that enabled -- most times -- new talent to emerge
      while simultaneously preventing the encrustation of old elites (which has
      been one key reason for Asia's failure). If each Asian society allows its
      best minds to emerge, flourish and provide leadership, Asia could well
      take off. But conservative social and political forces resist change. And
      a great deal of Asian talent is wasted.

      Globalization may succeed where domestic forces have failed. New economic
      forces are plowing through Asia, turning up talent. More than half of the
      500,000 foreign students in the United States comes from Asia. The
      American university system is the most meritocratic educational system
      anywhere. Asian successes there demonstrate that Asia has potentially the
      largest pool of talent to share with the world. Ostensibly this is a loss
      for Asia. Most will not return immediately. But many eventually do.
      Taiwan's economic miracle was helped by returning students. India's
      explosive growth in the computer software industry has also been helped by
      its returning "brain drain." Multinational businesses -- from banks and
      consulting firms to the dynamic new companies in information technology --
      are also tapping and training Asian talent. They could well be the yeast
      to revive long moribund Asian societies.

      The second principle is "peace." Peace, of course, was in short supply
      during much of Europe's growth. It took two debilitating world wars, where
      many of the best European minds were lost in mindless battles, for that
      continent to give up centuries of antagonism. One simple explanation for
      those two wars could be the time lag between changes in mental and
      physical environments. In the first half of the 20th century, vestiges of
      a 19th-century feudal mindset -- which saw war as a legitimate instrument
      for expanding power -- persisted in Europe, even though the instruments of
      war had increased dramatically in their power of destruction. Nuclear
      weapons, paradoxically, may have finally removed this time lag.

      Some Asian minds, including those of key policymakers, still linger in the
      feudal era. They see international relations as a zero-sum game. They have
      yet to learn the lessons that Japan and Germany absorbed after World War
      II: Power and prosperity can be acquired peacefully. The political dynamic
      of West Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia would become
      more comfortable if their leaders realized that peace is an essential
      condition for growth and prosperity in the modern world. Wars drive out
      investment dollars and kill (literally) talent. Peace does the opposite.
      Just one major war in Asia -- between any two major Asian powers -- could
      propel Asia back into the 19th century. Asians should learn from the
      wisdom of Deng Xiaoping when he said that future generations should be
      asked to solve today's territorial problems.

      The third principle is "honesty." This sounds trite, but it is a polite
      way of drawing attention to one of Asia's most shameful aspects:
      Corruption. Successful societies have functional elites. They add more
      value to their societies than they take from it. Unsuccessful societies
      have corrupt elites. As a result of feudal attitudes, they become easily
      entrenched, even though they survive as parasites. Corruption exists in
      both the democratic and non-democratic societies of Asia (and indeed in
      other parts of the world). To successfully root it out, the rule of law
      has to be more firmly embedded in Asian societies. Corruption is a
      particularly pernicious problem because it is so difficult to document,
      except in the most egregious cases like Ferdinand Marcos. It thrives at
      all levels. And the costs are not purely economic. They are also social
      and spiritual. They breed cynicism and disenchantment, sustaining a
      vicious circle that has held Asian societies down: When there is no hope
      for change, why try?

      And this points to the most dreadful truth that Asians have to come to
      terms with. Asian societies have not been held back due to colonialism.
      Nor have they been held back by inequitable international economic forces.
      The external causes are all peripheral (and often benign). The real reason
      that Asian societies have fallen behind European societies in the past
      five hundred years is a simple one: Asians have held Asia back.

      But I do not want to end on a pessimistic note. There is hope for change.
      Globalization will generate new elites in Asia. So too will the increasing
      velocity of change. Huge numbers of Asians are being educated, at home and
      abroad. New global flows of information are opening the eyes of Asians.
      The "veil of ignorance" is being lifted. A new process of learning has
      begun. All these forces will generate new opportunities for Asian
      societies. But the first lesson that Asian societies must learn is how to
      develop, implement and maintain the right software: Meritocracy, peace and
      honesty (MPH -- perhaps a good acronym to remember in times of rapid
      change).

      -Kishore Mahbubani is Singapore's Permanent Representative to the United
      Nations and author of the book 'Can Asians Think?' These are his personal
      views