BOSTON, MA

[April 30, 2002]

I M Lewis – "Somalis are perfectly capable of negotiating agreements if and when they really want to. Foreigners should in general stay outside Somali negotiations. Consider the pathetic record of UN involvement: it is a sad warning to the ignorant and innocent."

This month-end we share with you the latest analysis by the highly influential and most respectable Professor I M Lewis. In this paper, he reveals the truth and the follies of Djibouti and UN-sponsored Arta sub-clan; the sponsored sub-clan’s marauding hordes that are continuously pillaging and invading other clan territories; and the relentless, Joseph Goebels like, UN and BBC propaganda campaigns intended to prop up the dying cells of the sub-clan.

We will also look into the influence and the choice of Abdulqasim Salad Hassan as picked up, appointed and supported by business cronies including the Djibouti President and his fundamentalist al-islah businessmen.

While we are in the subject of Ismail Omar Ghelle, in the upcoming issues of SHASNA, we will give you a brief history of Mr. Ghelle, his education and upbringing, his earlier career as a sergeant and subsequently as the head of the notorious secret police, his alleged assassination of a French lawyer, his supporters, transactions, his highly profitable privatization of certain public properties including but not limited to the Sheraton Hotel in Djibouti, his business association with Boorre, the highly corrupted yet influential Djibouti tycoon; and his relations with the sub-clan’s businessmen and Ina Deylaaf in particular; We will also look into the motives behind his recent conniving conversion into al-Islah brand of fundamentalism; and finally, we will look into how he made it to the top post. Stay tuned for more in the upcoming SHASNA issues and more fascinating staff about the man and the myth of the now to be defunct Djibouti and UN-sponsored Somali peace process!

The Habar Ghidir colonisers who have implanted themselves in parts of this region do not constitute a single force. They are split into mutually hostile segments of the clan associated with the various warlords who hold sway in Mogadishu (Husseyn Aideed, Ali Atto ['Thin Ali'], and other less internationally familiar figures). Split internally, the Habar Ghidir also confront warlords of other Hawiye clans (such as Muse Sudi Yalahow) who control different sectors of the ruins that are Mogadishu. Within the town, militia employed by the TNG erratically try to control three or four streets in the south of the capital. Further a field, the TNG exerts a fitful influence at Merka, and Kismayu and in parts of the Juba valley through their powerful but far from dependable current allies amongst the Marehan (Siyad's clansmen). Their influence in this southern corner of Somalia is routinely challenged by the notorious Majerteyn warlord 'Morgan' (Mohamed Said Hersi Morgan and his militia), and currently menaced by the' Rahanweyn Resistance Army' led by the colorful Hassan Mohamed Nur ('Shatigudud', lit. 'Red Shirt'-evoking the romantic image of Garibaldi). Thus the vast inter-riverine area is a no-go area for the TNG. The most powerful of these figures (and various others) have banded together against the TNG as the 'Somali Reconciliation and Restoration Council'. This is a loose political aggregate based, in typical Somali fashion, on alliance against a common foe.

To the north-east, leadership of the embryonic state of Puntland, based primarily on the Majerteyn clan (another branch of the Darod) and the militia with which it fought Siyad, is currently the subject of vicious fighting between those who support the redoubtable liberation leader, Abdullai Yusuf, and his opponents.

Although all the Puntland contestants appear to be generally united in the assertion of their desire for local autonomy, so far this has not led them to seek to detach themselves completely from Somalia. There are good reasons for this. There are many Majerteyn clansmen in the port of Kismayu which they regard as their property. Kismayu (over which Morgan and his forces hover menacingly) is thus a kind of Achilles Heel for the Puntlanders.

Former US Ambassador Oakley's remarks, when he visited the Arta conference, about the brooding presence of Siyad's ghost there, could not have been more apposite! This comment also applies to most of the major warlords and contemporary political leaders with the exception of Mohamed Haji Ibrahim Egal in Hargeisa.

Although the TNG does contain individuals from most of the Somali clans, the crucial fact is that, generally, these are not regarded by their clansmen as their own representatives. Hence, the 'Arta faction' as it is now designated, lacks representative legitimacy. This obviously hampers any efforts it might make to extend its appeal. Even in Mogadishu, where Abdulqasim is amongst his own clansmen, his support now appears less widely based than it was at the establishment of his 'government' over a year ago.

Lacking a persuasively representative core of political heavyweights with popular reputations, the efforts of the TNG to expand its ranks have also been handicapped by the adoption, from its inception, of an inflexible centralist state model directly replicating that of Siyad's ill-fated regime. (It would obviously have been more intelligent if the UN and other parties involved in Arta had emphasized the political expediency of a loose federal structure.) At the same time it is clear that the TNG has expended more effort on seeking to expand external rather than internal recognition.

This policy has been coupled with pursuing arms procurement, contrary to the official UN arms embargo and TNG propaganda proclaiming its 'peaceful mission'. The UN has turned a blind-eye to these violations. With these weapons, such militia units as the TNG has been able to recruit, have been sent to maintain the Habar Ghidir hegemony of farms, seized from Rahanweyn owners along the lower Shebelle, and to assist clan allies in Merca and Kismayu. It is not surprising that the TNG is now known generally simply as the' Arta faction' and has lost further legitimacy in the south as well as in the north. It is now literally fighting for its survival. Meanwhile, misinterpreting the TNG's real lack of power, external players in the Somali drama (Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan), have tried to encourage significant negotiations between it and the southern warlords. (There seems to be an increasing recognition that Somaliland, and to some extent Puntland, are separate issues: and indeed their leaders have shown little interest in joining these southern conferences).

Such negotiations are hampered by the TNG's insistence (supported by its UN and Arab patrons) that it is the 'government', in contrast to the warlord 'factions., sometimes inaccurately described as 'rebels'. It seems unlikely that any meaningful dialogue will take place unless this pretension (which is essentially mythical) is abandoned, and Abdulqasim resigns and throws his hat into the ring. I do not say that this would necessarily lead to a successful and harmonious outcome. But it would surely help by bringing the world of political rhetoric in closer touch with reality. (Of course, in order to protect their interests, the Habar Ghidir are likely to do their utmost to maintain one of their leaders in this key position.)

Are there other ways in which pressure could be brought to bear on the southern leaders (warlord and TNG alike)? A large number of rich politicians have families(which they regularly visit) safely lodged as 'refugees' in western countries, with state housing and financial benefits.

For example, I believe that at the time of writing at least two TNG ministers are enjoying their local council accommodation in London boroughs' near where I live. I think the same applies to various warlords, and other dubious characters who regularly fly back and forth to Europe and north America when things get hot in Somalia. Is there an opportunity for some discreet pressure here? Cannot also something be done internationally about the printing of money, which is used cynically by merchants (not all Islamist) and the TNG to manipulate prices and make a killing at the expense of the poor people of Mogadishu? Surely other economic pressures might be developed to make life less easy for the masters of death in southern Somalia.

Apart from this, I think southern Somalia might benefit from being left to its own devices, cordoned off to reduce its ability to disrupt positive trends elsewhere in the country .So isolated, it would I hope, eventually be stimulated to follow the example of Somaliland (and until recently Puntland) in moving towards more internationally acceptable forms of social and political organisation.

 Of course, if this path is followed it runs the risk of exposing the general population in southern Somalia to further fundamentalist propaganda since this flourishes where government and social services are absent. But this is happening already. If the West wishes to counter this and, at the same time contribute to the betterment of the appalling conditions in southern Somalia, it should do its utmost to encourage secular developments through local Somali NGOs with convincing programmes in health and education. At the same time, it would be sensible to support the extension of secular education by distance learning with wide use of radio.  

If I M Lewis, a foreigner and a highly respected historian, can figure out that the problems of Somalia are mainly due to the pillaging and invading hordes of the sub-clan; who are always preying on the women and children, the weak and the old; who have grown illegal substances in the fertile fields of southern Somalia; who have appropriated the land and properties of southern Somalis; who have raped and preyed on the women of Marka and Barave; we wonder, how come that His Excellency didn’t mention any of their crimes as perpetrated by the militia of the men, who at one time or another, wanted to appoint him as the head of their reconciliation and appropriations (!) team? Or did His Excellency, the former premier, just substitute his decade old relations of convenience with Siad Barre to that of his Student, Mr. Abdiqasim Salad Hassan?

Appropriately enough, we again quote Prof. I M Lewis on the subject of sub-clan armaments: "This policy has been coupled with pursuing arms procurement, contrary to the official UN arms embargo and TNG propaganda [UN’s IRIN and BBC Somali Section] proclaiming its 'peaceful mission'. The UN has turned a blind-eye to these violations. With these weapons, such militia units as the TNG has been able to recruit, have been sent to maintain the Habar Ghidir hegemony of farms, seized from Rahanweyn owners along the lower Shebelle, and to assist clan allies in Merca and Kismayu."

Again we wonder, has the former prime minister conveniently become part and parcel of the diminishing propaganda campaigns of the sub-clan?

His Excellency, the former prime minister, continues, "The new [Ethiopian] policy seems to be oriented towards partisanship and clientalism when dealing with the Somali rival functions. This has led to a gradual but steady pattern of meddling in Somalia’s internal affairs. In turn, such a posture has aggravated the political and security situation." We ask His Excellency, what about that of Italy, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Eritrea? What about the daily plane loads of weapons and armaments from above governments and to the sub-clan? Does Balidoogle airport ring a bell? Do you, by any chance, have any idea, or has anyone informed you through the telephone or through an Internet site about the corrupt leader of the city-state of Djibouti and about his virtual intentions to run the affairs of the Somali people?

His Excellency, the former prime minister continues that "the reported training of militia by your government’s officers both in southern and northeastern parts of the country for a major offensives is also an open secret." We ask you, Your Excellency, what is wrong with self-defense, with trying to reclaim your land and properties? If nothing is wrong with the sub-clan receiving money, large sums of money, and armaments, for offensive purposes, from extremist Arabs and with the tacit support of your former and current friends, the Italians, then, what is wrong with persecuted Somalis receiving help from any willing party?

Dear readers, these are only the initial shots by this new and old group; stay tuned for more of the same in the coming days and months!

However, an important advice to His Excellency, the former prime minister:

Even though the timing of your letter, as always, is a bit peculiar and only intended by its writers for a specific purpose and target, we suggest you visit Somalia; go and see Baydhabo and talk to the leaders of the SouthWest State; try to see Kismayo, its now barren, torched and desolate lands and surroundings for yourself; look around, if you can, and find out who is the aggressor and the aggrieved?

About your concerns, Your Excellency, if you are sincerely free from clientalism, free from ambitions, free from hatred of one individual or another, you might have a hope of being seen as a neutral element in the ever distressed, pathetic and ever deteriorating situation in Somalia! And if so, you have a long way to go; and for sure, we will pray for you!

Dear readers, weeeeeee told you so! Need we say any further?

An important advice to the deficit ridden BBC: Save some money and shut down your BBC Somali desk; the British taxpayer needs savings more than ever!

For FT.com: save and cherish your hard earned reputation!

However, an important advice to the new team: stay away from Wayne Long; if there ever was one, this man is no more than a sophisticated UN warlord with a stealth and self-sustaining agenda!

As for our readers, as always stay relaxed, we will do the heavy lifting, and on your behalf, will track the activities of the merchants of death. And as always, our night vision goggles will be active on all horizons 7/24!

U.N. – Wall Street Journal – Michael Rubin: The UN’s Refugees – "U.N. agencies have been complicit in Mideast terror…Throughout the spring and summer of 2001, a serious of bomb explosions wracked the safe haven of northern Iraq. Kurdish authorities long suspected the complicity of certain U.N. drivers who crossed freely between the safe haven and Iraq proper…Perhaps Mr. Annan can be forgiven for not being aware that U.N.-funded refugee camps housed arms factories, or for allowing U.N. complicity in terror cover-ups in Lebanon and Iraq. But the Middle East where perception is more important than reality, Mr. Annan’s silence is deafening…the main casualty is U.N. credibility."

It is not only in Somalia that the UN reputation is taking severe hits day after day, but it is never too late, and as Prof. I M Lewis states "Consider the pathetic record of UN involvement: it is a sad warning to the ignorant and innocent." We can only add that His Excellency, Mr. Kofi Annan’s silence is definitely deafening!

Thank you very much for your support in the ARENA OF IDEAS in these trying times. The true and tested hardworking and devoted Somalis need leadership and unbiased information. We will try our very best to provide that. To other Somalis on the fence: the days of one clan forcefully dominating others are over. If each one of us doesn’t clean his/her own house, nobody, we repeat nobody, neither the innocent staff of the UN nor the highly arrogant and power hungry NGOs, will clean it for us! For all the young men and women: don’t waste your time in this clan rubbish. Stay in school; we may need you someday. For the few who disagree, please be specific in where we err, if we do at all!

SHASNA* Editorial Board
cc: SHASNA Members